Posted 9:58 AM by Dil

25 jan 2010
japan will go under first in next 10 years
us growing population, entrepreneurs keep it going

10 december 2009
normalish again, inflation expectations to before

biggest problem with small business - sales
fed stoking aggregate demand
(addressed tick - kasriel old fashioned, mainstream approach)

3 december 2010
I would argue that since mid March of this year the Fed has engaged in a qualitative easing policy, not a quantitative easing policy. The Fed’s balance sheet has not shown exceptional growth when compared with some recent years. Rather, the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet has been changed in favor of mortgage-backed securities, which has coincided with a return to normal spreads of conventional mortgage rates relative to Treasury bond yields. If the Fed were pursuing a true quantitative easing policy, the M2 money supply would be accelerating in growth, not decelerating.

quite mainstream
usa is fine

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investors more risk averse

dec 2009 - monthly report

To summarize, M2 growth currently is extremely weak. It likely will remain relatively weak through 2010 as credit creation by depository institutions will be impeded by capital constraints. If investors remain risk averse, their demand to hold federally-insured bank deposits will remain relatively high. This implies that velocity of the M2 money supply will not increase rapidly. Weak M2 money supply growth in combination with weak M2 velocity growth implies a sluggish economic recovery in 2010.