Posted 3:25 PM by Dil

January 20, 2009
W shaped double recession

second half 2010 start increasing IR
could be another recession in 2012

Leading Economic Indicators look at

inflationary pressures start to rise in second half of 2010

bond yields higher towards the end of the year and into 2010

Posted 1:53 PM by Dil

december 15 2008
very bad recession, but not great depression

http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0812/document/us1208.pdf
superb anaalysis.

expected 24 months, dec 2007 - 2009
expected maybe 5% contraction

Great Depression 43 months 1929-1933, GDP contracted 30%
13 months May 1937, contratced 3.5%

magnitude differences

4,3,1,4% CPI increases in 1934-1938, even though output gap was large

very large increase in money from 1933 onwards

now money increasing 10x faster than 1930s

deflation is not a political option
more borrowers than lenders
owes 7 trillion
debtors hate deflation

starting in 2010, starts reducing money supply